Predictions from Multi-Model Ensemble

A super-ensemble of forecasts results from the collection of all models ensembles

The predictions of the individual atmospheric models are objectively combined into a multi-model ensemble probability forecast, where weights assigned to the individual models are based on historical hindcast performance using prescribed, observed SST for the season.

The IRI's final issued climate forecasts are determined mainly by this objective multi-model product, but sometimes may be adjusted on the basis of factors such as availability of additional predictions (such as over the US), known model biases, uncertainties in aspects of the SST forecast, late-breaking SST or climate information, etc..

Latest predictions can be found here: http://iri.columbia.edu/forecast/climate/multi