The impacts of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons) on society are large both in human lives and in economical value, causing more insured losses than any other natural disaster. A better understanding of the climate factors that influence tropical cyclone landfall could help save many lives, especially in developing countries.
Research on tropical cyclones at IRI has focused on seasonal time scales, leading to experimental seasonal forecasts for several regions of the world. IRI Tropical Cyclone Experimental Forecasts
Using both dynamical and statistical methods, current research efforts focus on improved understanding of the factors that influence tropical cyclone activity and landfall.
Recent research results:
- The skill of various climate models in simulating tropical cyclone activity on seasonal scales was analyzed for global models, and regional models. Learn More.
- A study of the influence of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tropical cyclone intensity in the Western North Pacific region showed that there is a tendency in El Niño years towards tropical cyclones which are both more intense and longer-lived than in La Niña years. The influence of typhoons on the large-scale environment was also investigated. Learn More.
- A new probabilistic clustering technique was used to describe tropical cyclone tracks in the western North Pacific. The seven clusters have different characteristics, such as genesis location, trajectory, intensity and seasonality. Tropical cyclone landfalls over East and Southeast Asia are found to be strongly cluster dependent, both in terms of frequency and region of impact. The influence of ENSO on tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific is clearly discerned in specific clusters. Learn More.