Background

Shuhua Li holds a Ph.D. in meteorology from Monash University, Australia and a B.S. in meteorology from Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, China. Since joining the IRI in mid-2004, Dr. Li has been involved in the IRI's seasonal climate forecasts based on multi-model ensembling of several atmospheric general circulation models. Besides monthly production of these model forecasts, he is also responsible for collection and analysis of ENSO predictions, and making the extremely popular ENSO forecast plume, from up to 25 dynamical/statistical models around the world. Dr. Li's research in forecasting and prediction, as well as real-time forecast production, aims to improve predictive capability and to provide timely information and forecast products.

Role at the IRI

Li takes responsibility in the monthly production of the IRI seasonal climate forecasts, as well as ENSO prediction and analysis. He is also involved in research projects related to skill assessment of the GCM hindcasts and verification of the real-time forecasts.

Research Interests

Li's research interests include prediction and predictability of both 1-tier and 2-tier global climate models. He also works on verification of the IRI seasonal forecasts based on tercile-category probabilities, as well as probabilistic forecasts for more extreme conditions. More recently, Li has worked on seasonal climate forecasts based on multi-model ensembles of several coupled global models, including the latest NCEP CFSv2 real-time forecasts and some other model products from NMME.

Published Papers and Books (selected)

Barnston, A. G., M. K. Tippett, M. L. L'Heureux, S. Li, and D. G. DeWitt, 2012: Skill of Real-Time Seasonal ENSO Model Predictions during 2002–11: Is Our Capability Increasing?. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 631–651.

Tippett, M. K., A. G. Barnston, and S. Li, 2012: Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts. J. Appl Meteor. Climatol., 51, 637-654.

Barnston, A. G., S. Li , S. J. Mason, D. G. DeWitt, L. Goddard, and X. Gong, 2010: Verification of the First 11 Years of IRI's Seasonal Climate Forecasts. J. Appl. Meteor. Climat., 49, 493-520.

Li, S., L. Goddard, and D. G. Dewitt, 2008: Predictive Skill of AGCM Seasonal Climate Forecasts Subject to Different SST Prediction Methodologies. J. of Climate, 21, 2169-2186.

Li, S., and L. Goddard, 2005: Retrospective Forecasts with the ECHAM4.5 AGCM. IRI Technical Report No. 05-02.

Li, S., Cordero, E., and Karoly, D., 2003: Three-dimensional simulations of the springtime dissipation of the Antarctic ozone hole, Aust. Met. Mag., 52, 1-9.

Li, S., Cordero, E., and Karoly, D., 2002: Transport out of the Antarctic polar vortex from a three-dimensional transport model. J. Geophy. Res., 107 (D11), 4675, DOI: 10.1029/2001JD000508.

Li, S., and Waugh, D., 1999: Sensitivity of mean age and long-lived tracers to transport parameters in a two-dimensional model. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 30,559-30,569.

Tonkin, H., Landsea, C., Holland, G., and Li, S., 1997: Tropical cyclones and climate change: A preliminary assessment, In: W. Howe and A. Henderson-Sellers (Eds), Assessing Climate Change: Results from the Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment. Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, Sydney, 323-355.

Douglas, M., and Li, S., 1996: Diurnal variation of the lower-tropospheric flow over the Arizona low desert from SWAMP-1993 observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 1211-1224.