Background

After graduating from the University of Leeds, U.K., with a B.Sc. in mathematics and geography, Robertson received an M.Sc. from Imperial College, London in atmospheric physics and dynamics, and a Ph.D. in atmospheric dynamics from the University of Reading in 1984 under the supervision of Brian Hoskins. He held postdoctoral and research positions at the Universities of Paris, Munich, and UCLA prior to joining the IRI in 2001.

Research Interests

Robertson's research interests include

• regional climate variability, predictability and change
• probabilistic daily rainfall modeling
• predictability of weather-within-climate
• climate downscaling methodologies
• tailoring of climate information for use in conjunction with sectoral models for climate risk management

Role at the IRI

Robertson currently leads the downscaling division within IRI's Climate Program, and is the climate nodal person for IRI's Asia-Pacific regional program. His work is focussed on bringing climate information into regional projects that seek to demonstrate the value of "climate risk management," through targeted research, tool development, and training/outreach.

Publications

Moron, V., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2011: Impact of the modulated annual cycle and intraseasonal oscillation on daily-to-interannual rainfall variability across monsoonal India. Climate Dynamics, submitted. preprint

Chen, C., W. Baethgen, A. W. Robertson, 2010: Assessing the individual contributions of variations in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain, 1961-2003. Int. J. Climatology, submitted. preprint

Ines, A. V. M., J. W. Hansen, and A. W. Robertson, 2010: Enhancing the utility of daily GCM rainfall for crop yield prediction. Int. J. Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.2223. abstract

Robertson, A. W., V. Moron, J.-H. Qian, C.-P. Chang, F. Tangang, E. Aldrian, T. Y. Koh, and L. Juneng, 2010: The Maritime Continent Monsoon. The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast, 2nd Edition, Chap. 6. World Scientific, (Eds.) C.-P. Chang et al.. (in press)

Feliks, Y., M. Ghil, and A. W. Robertson, 2010b: The atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic as induced by the SST field. J. Climate, accepted. preprint

Greene, A. M., A. W. Robertson, P. Smyth, and S. Triglia, 2011: Downscaling projections of Indian monsoon rainfall using a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model. Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 137, 347-359. preprint

Seager, R., N. Naik, W. Baethgen, A. Robertson, Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, S. Jurburg, 2010: Tropical oceanic causes of interannual to multidecadal precipitation variability in southeast South America over the past century J. Climate, 23, 5517-5539. preprint

Qian, J.-H., A. W. Robertson, and V. Moron, 2010: Interactions between ENSO, Monsoon and Diurnal Cycle in Rainfall Variability over Java, Indonesia. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 3509-3523. preprint

Yoo, J. H., A. W. Robertson, and I.-S. Kang, 2010: Analysis of Intraseasonal and Interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon using a Hidden Markov Model. J. Climate, 23, 5498-5515. preprint

Verbist, K., A. W. Robertson, W. M. Cornelis, D. Gabriels, 2010: Seasonal predictability of daily rainfall characteristics in central-northern Chile for dry-land management. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 49, 1938-1955. preprint

Feliks, Y., M. Ghil, and A. W. Robertson, 2010: Oscillatory Climate Modes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Their Synchronization with the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Climate, 23, 4060-4079. preprint

Moron, V., A. W. Robertson, 2009: Interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall onset date across India. Geophys. Res. Lett., submitted Feb '09. preprint

Samuels, R., A. Robertson, A. Khalil, U. Lall, 2009: Downscaling Middle East Rainfall using a Support Vector Machine and Hidden Markov Model. Int. J. Climatology, submitted. preprint

Moron, V., A. W. Robertson and J.-H. Qian, 2010: Local versus large-scale characteristics of monsoon onset and post-onset rainfall over Indonesia. Climate Dynamics 34, 281-299. preprint

Robertson, A. W. , V. Moron, and Y. Swarinoto, 2009: Seasonal predictability of daily rainfall statistics over Indramayu district, Indonesia. Int. J. Climatology, 29, 1449-1462. preprint

Moron, V., A. Lucero, F. Hilario, B. Lyon, A. W. Robertson and D. DeWitt, 2009: Spatio-temporal variability and predictability of summer monsoon onset over the Philippines. Climate Dynamics, 33, 1159-1177. preprint

Huang, H.-P., A. W. Robertson, Y. Kushnir, and S. Peng, 2008: Hindcasts of tropical Atlantic SST gradient and South American precipitation: the influences of the ENSO forcing and the Atlantic preconditioning. J. Climate, in press. preprint

Camargo, S. J., A. W. Robertson, A. G. Barnston, and M. Ghil, 2008: Clustering of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks: ENSO and MJO effects. G-Cubed 9, Q06V05, doi:10.1029/2007GC001861. preprint

Richter, I., C. R. Mechoso, and A. W. Robertson, 2008: What Determines the Position and Intensity of the South Atlantic Anticyclone in Austral Winter? An AGCM Study. J. Climate, 21, 214-229. preprint

Moron, V., A. W. Robertson and R. Boer, 2009: Spatial coherence and seasonal predictability of mosoon onset over Indonesia. J. Climate 22, 840-850. preprint (revised version)

Giannini, A., A. W. Robertson, and J.-H. Qian, 2007: A role for tropical tropospheric temperature adjustment to El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the seasonality of monsoonal Indonesia precipitation predictability. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D16110, doi:10.1029/2007JD008519.

Greene, A. M., A. W. Robertson and S. Kirshner, 2008: Analysis of Indian monsoon daily rainfall on subseasonal to multidecadal time scales using a hidden Markov model. Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 134, 875-887. preprint

Moron, V., A. W. Robertson and M. N. Ward, 2008a: Weather Types and Rainfall over Senegal. Part I: Observational Analysis. J. Climate, 21, 266-287. preprint (revised version)

Moron, V., A. W. Robertson and M. N. Ward, 2008b: Weather types and rainfall in Senegal. Part II: Downscaling of GCM Simulations. J. Climate, 21, 288-307. preprint (revised version)

Moron, V., A. W. Robertson and M. N. Ward, 2007c: Spatial Coherence of tropical rainfall at Regional Scale. J. Climate, 20, 5244-5263. preprint

Trzaska, S., A. W. Robertson, J. D. Farrara, and C. R. Mechoso, 2007: South Atlantic Variability Arising from Air Sea Coupling: Local Mechanisms and Tropical Subtropical Interactions. J. Climate, 20, 3345-3365. abstract

Ihler, A. T., S. Kirshner, M. Ghil, A. W. Robertson, and P. Smyth, 2007: Graphical models for statistical inference and data assimilation. Physica D, 230(1-2), 72-87. preprint

Robertson, A. W., A. V. M. Ines and J. W. Hansen, 2007: Downscaling of seasonal precipitation for crop simulation. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 46 677-693. preprint

Camargo, S.J., A.W. Robertson, S.J. Gaffney, P. Smyth, and M. Ghil, 2007: Cluster Analysis of Typhoon Tracks. Part I: General Properties. J. Climate, 20, 3635-3653. preprint

Camargo, S.J., A.W. Robertson, S.J. Gaffney, P. Smyth, and M. Ghil, 2007: Cluster Analysis of Typhoon Tracks. Part II: Large-Scale Circulation and ENSO. J. Climate, 20, 3654-3676. preprint

Robinson, W. A., A. W. Robertson, and S. Lozier, 2005: Scientific Understanding of the Atlantic Basin Climate System: A Mid-CLIVAR Perspective. Unpublished.

Tippett, M. K., and Barnston, A. G., and Robertson, A. W., 2007. Estimation of seasonal precipitation tercile-based categorical probabilities from ensembles, J. Climate, 20, 2210-2228. abstract

Moron, V., A. W. Robertson and M. N. Ward, 2006: Seasonal predictability and spatial coherence of rainfall characteristics in the tropical setting of Senegal. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3246-3260. preprint

Koo, S., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2005: A Multiple-Regime Approach to Atmospheric Zonal-Flow Vacillation. Unpublished. preprint

Gaffney, S. J., A. W. Robertson, P. Smyth, S. J. Camargo and M. Ghil, 2007: Probabilistic Clustering of Extratropical Cyclones Using Regression Mixture Models. Climate Dynamics, 29, 423-440. preprint

Kondrashov, D., S. Kravtsov, A. W. Robertson and M. Ghil, 2005: A hierarchy of data-based ENSO models. J. Climate, 18, 4425-4444 . preprint

Huang, H.-P., A. W. Robertson and Y. Kushnir, 2005: Atlantic SST gradient and the influence of ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20706, doi:10.1029/2005GL023944. abstract

Kravtsov, S., A. W. Robertson and M. Ghil, 2006: Multiple regimes and low-frequency oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere's zonal-mean flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 840-860 preprint

Kushnir, Y., W. A. Robinson, P. Chang, and A. W. Robertson, 2006: The physical basis for predicting Atlantic sector seasonal-to-internnual climate variability. J. Climate, 19, 5949-5970.

Kravtsov, S., A. W. Robertson and M. Ghil, 2005: Bimodal Behavior in the Zonal Mean Flow of a Baroclinic Beta-Channel Model. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1746-1769 abstract

Robertson, A. W., S. Kirshner, P. Smyth, S. P. Charles, and B. C. Bates, 2006: Subseasonal-to-Interdecadal Variability of the Australian Monsoon Over North Queensland. Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 132, 519-542. preprint

Mechoso, C. R., A. W. Robertson, C. F. Ropelewski, A. M. Grimm, 2005: The American Monsoon Systems: An Introduction. C. -P. Chang, B. Wang and N. -C. G. Lau, Eds WMO/TD No. 1266 (TMRP Report No. 70), 197-206. preprint

Robertson, A. W., S. Kirshner, and P. Smyth, 2004: Downscaling of daily rainfall occurrence over Northeast Brazil using a Hidden Markov Model. J. Climate, 17, 4407-4424. preprint

Robertson, A. W., U. Lall, S. E. Zebiak, and L. Goddard, 2004: Optimal Combination of Multiple Atmospheric GCM Ensembles for Seasonal Prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., , 132, 2732-2744. preprint

Kirshner, S., P. Smyth, and A. Robertson, 2004: Conditional Chow-Liu tree structures for modeling discrete-valued vector time series. Technical Report UCI-ICS 04-04, March 2004. (shorter version in Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Uncertainty in AI , July 2004.) PDF

Lott, F., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2004a: Mountain torques and Northern Hemisphere low-frequency variability. Part I: Hemispheric and oscillatory aspects. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1259-1271.

Lott, F., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2004b: Mountain torques and Northern Hemisphere low-frequency variability. Part II: Regional and episodic aspects. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1272-1283.

Robertson, A. W., and C. R. Mechoso, 2003: Circulation Regimes and Low-Frequency Oscillations in the South Pacific Sector. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1566-1576. preprint

Robertson, A. W., J. D. Farrara, and C. R. Mechoso, 2003: Simulations of the Atmospheric Response to South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies. J. Climate, 16, 2540-2551. preprint

Cazes, G., A. W. Robertson, and C. R. Mechoso, 2003: Seasonal Dependence of Teleconnections Over South America. J. Climate, 16, 1159-1176. preprint

Czaja, A., A. W. Robertson, and T. Huck, 2003: The role of coupled processes in producing NAO variability. Geophysical Monongraphs, 134, 147-172.

Kravtsov, S., Robertson, A. W., and M. Ghil, 2003: Low-Frequency Variability in a Baroclinic Beta Channel with Land-Sea Contrast. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 2267-2293.

Ghil, M., and A. W. Robertson, 2002: "Waves" vs. "particles" in the atmosphere's phase space: A pathway to long-range forecasting?, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 99 (Suppl. 1), 2493-2500. preprint

Ghil M., R. M. Allen, M. D. Dettinger, K. Ide, D. Kondrashov, M. E. Mann, A. Robertson, A. Saunders, Y. Tian, F. Varadi, and P. Yiou, 2002: Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series, Rev. Geophys., 40(1), 1003, doi:10.1029/2000RG000092. preprint

Koo, S., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2002: Multiple regimes and low-frequency oscillations in the Southern Hemisphere's zonal-mean flow. J. Geophys. Res. 10.1029/2001JD001353. preprint

Kravtsov, S., and A. W. Robertson, 2002: Midlatitude ocean-atmosphere interaction in an idealized coupled model. Climate Dynamics, 19, 693-711. preprint

Robertson, A. W., C. R. Mechoso, and N. O. Garcia, 2001: Interannual prediction of the Parana river. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 4235-4238. preprint

Robertson, A. W., 2001: On the influence of ocean-atmosphere interaction on the Arctic Oscillation in two general circulation models. J. Climate, 14, 3240-3254. Text (gzipped postscript file) Figs (gzipped postscript tar archive)

Lott, F., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2000: Mountain torques and intraseasonal atmospheric oscillations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1207-1210. gzipped postscript file

Farrara, J. D., C. R. Mechoso, and A. W. Robertson, 2000: Ensembles of AGCM two-tier predictions and simulations of the circulation anomalies during winter 1997-98. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 3589-3604. pdf file (original unrevised version)

Robertson, A. W., and C. R. Mechoso, 2000: Interannual and interdecadal variability of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 2947-2957. pdf file

Ghil, M., and A.W. Robertson, 2000: Solving problems with GCMs: General Circulation Models and their role in the climate modeling hierarchy. In General Circulation Model Development: Past, Present, and Future (Arakawa Festschrift), D. Randall (Ed.), Academic Press, pp. 285-325. pdf file

Robertson, A. W., C. R. Mechoso, and Y.-J. Kim, 2000: The influence of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Climate, 13, 122-138. pdf file

Robertson, A. W., M. Ghil, and M. Latif, 2000: Interdecadal Changes in Atmospheric Low-Frequency Variability With and Without Boundary Forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 1132-1140. pdf file

Robertson, A. W., and M. Ghil, 1999: Large-Scale Weather Regimes and Local Climate Over the Western United States. J. Climate, 12, 1796-1813. pdf file

Robertson, A. W., and C. R. Mechoso, 1998: Interannual and Decadal Cycles in River Flows of Southeastern South America. J. Climate, 11, 2570-2581. Abstract / Text (gzipped postscript) / Figs (gzipped postscript tar archive)

Allen, M.R., and A.W. Robertson, 1996: Distinguishing modulated oscillations from coloured noise in multivariate datasets. Climate Dynamics, 12, 775-784. Abstract+Figs / Article.pdf

Ma, C.-C., C.R. Mechoso, A.W. Robertson, and A. Arakawa, 1996: Peruvian stratus clouds and the tropical Pacific circulation: a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM study. J. Climate, 9, 1635-1645.

Robertson, A.W., and C. R. Mechoso, 1996: An Intercomparison of the Surface Fluxes over the Tropical Pacific in 9 Coupled GCMs. Report of talk given at CGSG/DICE workshop in Paris 24-27 June 1996. (unpublished) Abstract+Figs

Robertson, A.W., 1996: Interdecadal variability in a multicentury climate integration. Climate Dynamics, 12, 227-241. Abstract / Article.pdf

Robertson, A.W., M.R. Allen, M. Ghil, and L.A. Smith 1995: Tests for distinguishing multivariate oscillatory behavior from AR(1) noise. In Pro19 of the 20th Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Climate Analysis Center, NOAA. Abstract

Mechoso, C.R., A.W. Robertson, and Co-authors 1995: The seasonal cycle over the tropical Pacific in general circulation models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2825-2838. Abstract+Figs / Text.ps / Figs.ps / ColorFigs.ps

Robertson, A.W., C.-C. Ma, M. Ghil, and C.R. Mechoso, 1995: Simulation of the tropical Pacific climate with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Part II: Interannual variability. J. Climate, 8, 1199-1216. Abstract

Robertson, A.W., C.-C. Ma, C.R. Mechoso and M. Ghil, 1995: Simulation of the tropical Pacific climate with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Part I: The seasonal cycle. J. Climate, 8, 1178-1198. Abstract

Robertson, A.W., C.-C. Ma, C.R. Mechoso 1993: The seasonal cycle in surface heat fluxes over the tropical Pacific in a coupled GCM. In Proceedings of the 18th Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Climate Analysis Center, NOAA, 1994. Abstract

Robertson, A.W., C.-C. Ma, C.R. Mechoso and M. Ghil, 1992: Simulations of the tropical-Pacific climate with the UCLA coupled GCM. In Proceedings of the 17th Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Climate Analysis Center, NOAA, 1992.

Robertson, A.W., 1993: An examination of simulated regional climate change using the adjoint method. Climate Dyn.amics 43-51.

Robertson, A.W., 1992c: The investigation of regional climate anomalies with a linear barotropic model and an adjoint technique. Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 118, 1187-1209.

Robertson, A.W., 1992b: Diagnosis of regional monthly anomalies using the adjoint method. Part II: Potential Vorticity. J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 906-918.

Robertson, A.W., 1992a: Diagnosis of regional monthly anomalies using the adjoint method. Part I: Temperature. J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 885-905.

Robertson, A.W., and W. Metz, 1990b: An investigation of the storm-track eddies in a low-resolution climate model using linear theory. Beitr. Phys. Atmos., 63, 177- 188.

Robertson, A.W., and W. Metz,1990a: Transient-eddy feedbacks derived from linear theory and observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2743-2764.

Robertson, A.W., and C. Frankignoul, 1990: The tropical circulation: Simple model versus general circulation model. Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 116, 69-87.

Robertson, A.W., and W. Metz, 1989: Three-dimensional linear instability of persistent anomalous large-scale flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 2783-2801.

Hoskins, B.J., M.E. McIntyre, and A.W. Robertson, 1985: On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps. Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 111, 877-946.

Robertson, A.W., 1984: Ertel potential vorticity as a tropospheric variable. Ph. D. Thesis, University of Reading, U.K., 178pp.