Research Interests

My career goal is to alleviate the suffering associated with poverty and food insecurity in tropical regions, through problem-driven agricultural systems research. Agricultural systems focuses on understanding and managing interactions -- among the components of agricultural systems, among hierarchical levels of agricultural systems, between agricultural and other land use systems, and between agricultural systems and their natural and social environments. Since 1999, my work has focused on climate risk management for agriculture and food security. Climate-related risk is a major contributor to poverty and food insecurity, and an impediment to agricultural development efforts, particularly in rainfed farming systems in the dryer tropics. Better management of climatic risk, including appropriate use of forecast information at a seasonal lead time, offers significant, under exploited potential to contribute to rural food and livelihood security in several parts of the world. My current research emphasizes:

• The economic implications of risk and advance information for agricultural and food security management;
• The design and effective communication of climate information for smallholder farmers;
• Integrating climate and other information to forecast agricultural production; and
• The role of managing current climate risk in reducing vulnerability to progressive climate change.

My work at the University of Florida on applying ENSO-based climate prediction to agricultural decision making, prior to joining the IRI in 1999, contributed to the development of a statewide climate applications extension program in Florida, and formation of the Southeast Climate Consortium. Past research contributions have included applications of agricultural systems methods to use of climate information, farm economic risk and sustainability analysis, and land use under conflicting goals; communication of probabilistic climate information; spatial scaling in agroecosystem modeling; stochastic weather modeling; climate-based crop forecasting; and tropical soil fertility and intercrop ecology. The geographic focus of my work has included the Philippines, Colombia, Argentina, India, Mali, Kenya, Zambia, Burkina Faso and the Southeast USA. I hold a Ph.D. in Agricultural and Biological Engineering from the University of Florida, and M.S. in Agronomy and Soil Science from the University of Hawaii. I am Co-Editor-In-Chief of Agricultural Systems.

Refereed Papers (since 2005, 43 total)

Hansen, J.W., Mishra, A., Rao, K.P.C., Indeje, M., Ngugi, R.K., 2009. Potential value of GCM-based seasonal rainfall forecasts for maize management in semi-arid Kenya. Agricultural Systems 101:80-90.

Mishra, A., Hansen, J.W., Dingkuhn, M., Baron, C., Traore, S.B., Ndiaye, O., Ward, M.N., 2008. Sorghum yield prediction from seasonal rainfall forecasts in Burkina Faso. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 148:1798-1814.

Meza, F.J., Hansen, J.W., Osgood, D., 2008. Economic value of seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture: review of ex ante assessments and recommendations for future research. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 47:1269-1286.

Baigorria, G.A., Hansen, J.W., Ward, M.N., Jones, J.W., O'Brien, J.J., 2008. Regional atmospheric circulation and surface temperatures predicting cotton yields in the southeastern USA. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 47:76-91.

Peiris, T.S.G., Hansen, J.W., Zubair, L., 2008. Use of seasonal rainfall in forecasting annual national coconut production in Sri Lanka: an integrated approach. International Journal of Climatology 28:103-110.

Hansen, J.W., Baethgen, W., Osgood, D., Ceccato, P., Ngugi, R.K., 2007. Innovations in climate risk management: protecting and building rural livelihoods in a variable and changing climate. Journal of Semi-Arid Tropical Agricultural Research 4(1). (published online at http://www.icrisat.org/Journal/specialproject.htm).

Robertson, A.W., Ines, A.V.M., Hansen, J.W., 2007. Downscaling of seasonal precipitation for crop simulation. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 46:677-693.

Ines, A.V.M, Hansen, J.W., 2006. Bias correction of daily GCM rainfall for crop simulation studies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 138:44-53.

Hansen, J.W., Challinor, A., Ines, A.V.M, Wheeler, T., Moron, V., 2006. Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges. Climate Research 33:27-41.

Hansen, J.W., 2005. Integrating seasonal climate prediction and agricultural models for insights into agricultural practice. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 360:2037-2047.

Hansen, J.W., Ines, A.V.M., 2005. Stochastic disaggregation of monthly rainfall data for crop simulation studies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 131:233-246.

Submitted

Hansen, J.W., Zebiak, S., Baethgen, W., Ines, A.V.M., Osgood, D. Climate Risk, Information and Market Participation for African Farmers. Proceedings of the Conference, Towards Priority Actions for Market Development for African Farmers, Nairobi, Kenya, 13 May 2009. (Refereed proceeding)

Osgood, D.E., Suarez, P., Hansen, J.W., Carriquiry, M., Mishra, A., Integrating seasonal forecasts and insurance for adaptation among smallholder farmers: the case of Malawi. American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Books, Chapters, Reports, Edited Volumes (since 2005)

CCCP. 2009. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security. CCCP Report No. 1. A CGIAR Challenge Program. The Alliance of the CGIAR Centres and ESSP, Rome and Paris. 51 pp. (authors in alphabetical order: Hansen, J.W., Ingram, J., Jarvis, A. O�Brien, K., Rosegrant, M., Thornton, P.K., Vorosmarty, C., Washington, R., Wassmann, R.)

Giannini, A., Hansen, J.W., Holthus, E., Ines, A., Kaheil, Y., Karnauskas, K., McLaurin, M., Osgood, D., Robertson, D., Shirley, K., Vicarelli, M., 2009. Designing Index-Based Weather Insurance for Farmers in Central America. IRI Tech. Rep. No. 09-01. International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, New York, USA. 19 pp. (Project report to the World Bank Commodity Risk Management Group. Authors in alphabetical order.)

Brown, C., Hansen, J.W., 2008. Agricultural Water Management and Climate Risk. IRI Tech. Rep. No. 08-01. International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, New York, USA. 19pp. (Commissioned report for the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation)

Barrett, C.B., Barnett, B.J. Carter, M.R., Chantarat, S., Hansen, J.W., Mude, A.G., Osgood, D.E., Skees, J.R., Turvey, C.G., Ward, M.N., 2007. Poverty Traps and Climate Risk: Limitations and Opportunities of Index-Based Risk Financing. IRI Tech. Rep. No. 07-03. International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, New York, USA. (Commissioned background paper for the IRI Policy Roundtable on Climate Risk, Poverty Traps and Index-Based Financing)

Osgood, D.E, McLaurin, M. Carriquiry, M., Mishra, A., Fiondella, F., Hansen, J.W., Peterson, N., Ward, N., 2007. Designing Weather Insurance Contracts for Farmers in Malawi, Tanzania, and Kenya, Final Report to the Commodity Risk Management Group, ARD, World Bank. IRI Tech. Rep. No. 07 02. International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, New York, USA.

Sivakumar, M.V.K., Hansen, J.W. (Eds.), 2007. Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Advances and Challenges. Springer, New York.

Sivakumar, M.V.K., Hansen, J.W., 2007. Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Summary and the Way Forward. Pp. 1-13 in: Sivakumar, M.V.K., Hansen, J.W. (Ed.), Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Advances and Challenges. Springer, Berlin.

Lansigan, F.P., de los Santos, W.L., Hansen, J.W., 2007. Delivering climate forecast products to farmers: Ex-post assessment of impacts of climate information on corn production systems in Isabela, Philippines. Pp. 41-48 in: Sivakumar, M.V.K., Hansen, J.W. (Ed.), Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Advances and Challenges. Springer, Berlin.

Singh, K.K., Reddy, D.R., Kaushik, S., Rathore, L.S., Hansen, J.W., Sreenivas, G., 2007. Application of seasonal climate forecasts for sustainable agricultural production in Telangana subdivision of Andhra Pradesh, India. Pp. 111-127 in: Sivakumar, M.V.K., Hansen, J.W. (Ed.), Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Advances and Challenges. Springer, Berlin.

Selvaraju, R., Meinke, H., Hansen, J.W., 2007. Climate Forecast Applications for Better Water Management in Agriculture: A Case Study for Southern Peninsular India. Pp. 143-155 in: Sivakumar, M.V.K., Hansen, J.W. (Ed.), Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Advances and Challenges. Springer, Berlin.

de los Santos, W.L., Lansigan, F.P., Hansen, J.W., 2007. Linking corn production, climate information and farm-level decision-making: a case study in Isabela, Philippines. Pp. 157-164 in: Sivakumar, M.V.K., Hansen, J.W. (Ed.), Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Advances and Challenges. Springer, Berlin.

Rao, V.N., Singh, P., Hansen, J.W., Krishna, T.G., Murthy, S.K.K., 2007. Use of ENSO-based seasonal rainfall forecasting for informed cropping decisions by farmers in the SAT India. Pp. 165-180 in: Sivakumar, M.V.K., Hansen, J.W. (Ed.), Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Advances and Challenges. Springer, Berlin.

Sivakumar, M.V.K., Hansen, J.W., 2007. Conclusions and recommendations. Pp. 281-288 in: Sivakumar, M.V.K., Hansen, J.W. (Ed.), Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Advances and Challenges. Springer, Berlin.

Hansen, J.W., Sivakumar, M.V.K. (Guest Eds.), 2006. Advances in Applying Climate Prediction in Agriculture. Special issue of Climate Research 33(1).

Hansen, J.W., Hellmuth, M., Thomson, M., Williams, J. (Editors), 2006. A Gap Analysis for the Implementation of the Global Climate Observing System Programme in Africa. IRI Technical Report No. 06 01. International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, New York. 49 pp.

Conference Papers and Abstracts (since 2005)

Baethgen, W.E., Hansen, J.W., Ines, A., Greene A.M., Goddard L., 2009. Exploring Options to Improve Adaptation to Climate Change in Crop Production of Southeastern South America. Pp. 402-403 in: Van Ittersum, M.K., Wolf, J., Van Laar, H.H. (Eds.) Proceedings of the Conference on Integrated Assessment of Agriculture and Sustainable Development: Setting the Agenda for Science and Policy (AgSAP 2009), Egmond aan Zee, The Netherlands, 10-12 March 2009. Wageningen University and Research Center, Wageningen.

Ines, A.V.M., HHansen, J.W., 2009. Extracting useful information from daily GCM rainfall for cropping system modeling. Pp. 218-219 in: Van Ittersum, M.K., Wolf, J., Van Laar, H.H. (Eds.) Proceedings of the Conference on Integrated Assessment of Agriculture and Sustainable Development: Setting the Agenda for Science and Policy (AgSAP 2009), Egmond aan Zee, The Netherlands, 10-12 March 2009. Wageningen University and Research Center, Wageningen.

Ines, A.V.M., Hansen, J.W., 2008. Bias correction and stochastic disaggregation of GCM rainfall for decision support in agriculture and water management. American Geophysical Union 2008 Joint Assembly: The Meeting of the Americas, Fort Lauderdale, 27-30 May 2008. Eos Trans. AGU 89(23), Jt. Assem. Suppl., Abstract H51B-06.

Hansen, J.W., 2007. Bridging the Climate Change Adaptation and Climate-Sensitive Development Challenges in Rural Africa. Food Security and Environmental Change: Linking Science, Development and Policy for Adaptation, University of Oxford, UK, 2-4 April 2008.

Robertson, A.W., Ines, A.V.M., Hansen, J.W., 2006. On the temporal resolution of seasonal forecasts for crop simulation. American Geophysical Union 2006 Joint Assembly, Baltimore, 23 26 May 2006.

Ward, N., Hansen, J.W., Arumugam, S., Osgood, D., Zubair, L., Brown, C., Mishra A., 2006. Examples of decision systems research and tool development for climate risk management. Global Environmental Change: Regional Challenges. An Earth System Science Partnership Global Environmental Change Open Science Conference, Beijing, China, 9-12 November 2006.

Baigorria, G.A., Hansen, J.W., Ward, M.N., Jones, J.W., O'Brien, J.J., 2006. Regional Atmospheric Circulation and Surface Temperatures Predicting Cotton Yields in the Southeastern USA. 2006 Agronomy Abstracts. Am. Soc. Agronomy, Madison, WI, USA.

Hansen, J.W., Challinor, A., Ines, A., Mishra, A. Chee-Kiat, T., 2006. Predicting Crop Response to Drought Using Advance Climate Information: An International Perspective. 36th Biological Systems Simulation Conference 2006, Fort Collins, Colorado, 11-13 April 2006.

Robertson, A.W. Ines, A.V.M. Hansen, J.W., 2006. On the Temporal Resolution of Seasonal Forecasts for Crop Simulation. American Geophysical Union Joint Assembly, Baltimore, 23-26 May 2006.

Hansen, J.W., 2006. Managing Risk and Capturing Opportunity in a Variable Climate. Project Inception Workshop: Making the Best of Climate - Adapting Agriculture to Climate Variability, Nairobi, Kenya, 6-10, February 2006.

Hansen, J.W., Mishra, A. 2006. Methods for predicting rainfall impacts on crops at a long lead time. Pp. 565-566 in: Genau, I., Marsh, S., McQuaid, J., Redelsperger, J.-L., Thorncroft C., and van den Akker, E. (Eds.), African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis 1st International Conference, Dakar, Senegal, 28 November-4 December 2005, Extended Abstracts. AMMA International Project Office, Paris.

Hansen, J.W., 2005. Climate as a Key Driver of Risk. Stakeholder Workshop on Managing Climate Risk, ICRISAT, Patancheru, India, 9-11 November 2005.

Hansen, J.W., 2005. Scaling Up Support for Climate Applications in India: a Consortium Approach. Stakeholder Workshop on Managing Climate Risk, ICRISAT, Patancheru, India, 9-11 November 2005.

Ward, N., Hansen, J.W., Arumugam, S., Osgood, D., Zubair, L., Brown, C., Mishra A., 2005. Decision systems research and tool development at the IRI. U.S. Climate Change Science Program Workshop, Climate Science in Support of Decisionmaking, Arlington, Virginia, 14-16 November 2005.

Mishra, A., Hansen, J.W., Rao, K.P.C., Nanja, D., Mukhala, E., 2005. Decision systems research and tool development at the IRI. Climate Science in Support of Decision Making, U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Arlington, Virginia, 14-16 November 2005.

Ward, M.N., Hansen, J.W., Osgood, D., Arumugam, S., Mishra, A., 2005. Linking seasonal climate forecasts with crop simulation to optimize maize management. Climate Science in Support of Decision Making, U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Arlington, Virginia, 14-16 November 2005.

Hansen, J.W., 2005. Crop Forecasting Using Atmospheric General Circulation Models. Dept. of Meteorology, Univ. of Reading, 25 April 2005.

Ines, A.V.M., Robertson, A.W., Hansen, J.W., 2005. Application of the non-homogenous hidden markov model for predicting regional crop yields over the Southeastern US. Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop: Research and Applications on Use and Impacts, Palisades, New York, 15-17 March 2005.