Background

Prior to arriving to the IRI at the end of June 2000, Barnston was an operational seasonal climate forecaster and developmental researcher in empirical prediction methodology at the Climate Prediction Center of NOAA for 17 years. He has authored atlases, reports and journal papers on weather and climate, many of which were about statistical diagnosis of large-scale circulation patterns and on empirical climate prediction. He was Editor of the Experimental Long Lead Forecast Bulletin from 1992 to 1997. Barnston has received awards from the Department of Commerce and the American Meteorological Society.

Role at the IRI

Barnston ensures the production and scheduled issuance of a range of IRI forecast products, including an ENSO Outlook and monthly forecasts of near-global sea surface temperatures, precipitation and surface air temperature. He works toward implementation of improved methods and tools to enhance the quality and content of the forecasts, and increased automation in the forecast process. He seeks to engage the user community on forecast interpretation and use, and provides training and capacity building on aspects of climate forecasting for visiting scientists, students, and forecasters from national meteorological centers abroad.

Selected Publications

In Press

Barnston, A. G. and S. J. Mason, 2011: Evaluation of IRI's seasonal climate forecasts for the extreme 15% tails. Wea. Forecasting, 26, in press.

2010s

Ishikawa, T., A. G. Barnston, K. A. Kastens and P. Louchouarn, 2011: Understanding, evaluation and use of climate forecast data by environmental policy students. Chapter 11 in Special Paper 474, Qualitative Inquiry in Geosciences Education Research, Geolog. Soc. Amer., A. D. Feid and A Stokes, Eds., 153-170.

Chowdhury, M. R., A. G. Barnston, C. Guard, S. Duncan, T. A. Schroeder, and P.-S. Chu, 2010: Sea-level variability and change in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands: Understanding the high sea levels during 2006-2008. Weather, 65, 263-268.

Tippett, M. K., A. G. Barnston, and T. DelSole, 2010: Comment on "Finite Samples and Uncertainty Estimates for Skill Measures for Seasonal Prediction". Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 1487-1493.

Camargo, S. J., A. H. Sobel, A. G. Barnston and P. J. Klotzbach, 2010: The influence of natural climate variability on tropical cyclones, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity. In Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones; From Science to Mitigation, Vol. 4, J. C. L Chan and J. D. Kepert, Eds., World Scientific Publishing.

Barnston, A. G., S. Li, S. J. Mason, D. G. DeWitt, L. Goddard, and X. Gong, 2010: Verification of the first 11 years of IRI's seasonal climate forecasts. J. Appl. Meteor. Climat., 49, 493-520.

2000s

Camargo, S. J., and A. G. Barnston, 2009: Experimental dynamical seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 472-491.

Mantilla, G., H. Oliveros, and A. G. Barnston, 2009: The role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden by region, 1960-2006. Malaria Journal, 8, 11 pp.

Tippett, M. K., and A. G. Barnston, 2008: Skill of multimodel ENSO probability forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3933-3946.

Tippett, M. K., T. DelSole, S. J. Mason, and A. G. Barnston, 2008: Regression-based methods for finding optimal patterns. J. Climate., 21, 4384-4398.

Ceccato, P., T. Ghebremeskel, M. Jaiteh, P. M. Graves, M. Levy, S Ghebreselassie, A Ogbamariam, A. G. Barnston, M. Bell, J. del Corral, J. J. Connor, I. Fesseha, E. P. Brantly, and M. C. Thomson, 2007: Malaria stratification, climate, and epidemic early warning in Eritrea. Amer. J. Tropical Med. and Hygiene, 77, 61-68.

Tippett, M. K., A. G. Barnston, and A. W. Robertson, 2007: Estimation of seasonal precipitation tercile-based categorical probabilities from ensembles, J. Climate, 20, 2210-2228.

Korecha, D. and A. G. Barnston, 2007: Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 628-650.

Goddard, L., A. Kumar, M. P. Hoerling, and A. G. Barnston, 2006:Diagnosis of anomalous winter temperatures over the eastern United States during the 2002/03 El Nino. J. Climate, 19, 5624-5636.

Lyon, B., and A. G. Barnston, 2005: ENSO and the spatial extent of interannual precipitation extremes in tropical land areas. J. Climate, 18, 5095-5109.

Tippett, M. K., A. G. Barnston, D. G. DeWitt, and R. H. Zhang, 2005: Statistical correction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature forecasts. J. Climate, 18, 5141-5162.

Camargo, S. J., A. G. Barnston, and S. E. Zebiak, 2005: A sstatistical assessment of tropical cyclone activity in atmospheric general circulation models. Tellus(A), 57, 589-604.

Tippett, M. K., L. Goddard, and A. G. Barnston, 2005: Statistical-dynamical seasonal foreacsts of central-southwest Asian winter precipitation. Climate, 18, 1831-1843.

Barnston, A. G., A. Kumar, L. Goddard, and M. P. Hoerling, 2005: Improving seasonal prediction practices through attribution of climate variability. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 59-72.

Barnston, A. G., S. J. Mason, L. Goddard, D. G. DeWitt, and S. E. Zebiak, 2003: Multimodel ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at IRI. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1783-1796.

Goddard, L., A. G. Barnston, and S. J. Mason, 2003: Evaluation of the IRI's "Net Assessment" seasonal climate forecasts: 1997-2001. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.., 84, 1761-1781.

Gong, X., A. G. Barnston, and M. N. Ward, 2003: The effect of spatial aggregation on the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts. J. Climate, 16, 3059-3071.

Kumar, A., A. G. Barnston, and M. P. Hoerling, 2001: Seasonal predictions, probabilisitc verifications, and ensemble size. J. Climate, 14, 1671-1676.

Peng, P., A. Kumar, A. G. Barnston, and L. Goddard, 2000: Simulation skills of the SST-forced global climate variability of the NCEP-MRF9 and the Scripps-MPI ECHAM3 models. J. Climate, 13, 3657-3679.

Kumar, A., A. G. Barnston, P. Peng, M. P. Hoerling, and L. Goddard, 2000: Changes in the spread of the variability of the seasonal mean atmospheric states associated with ENSO. J. Climate, 13, 3139-3151.

Barnston, A. G., Y. He, and D. Unger, 2000: A forecast product that maximizes utility for state-of-the-art climate prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 1271-1279.

1990s

Barnston, A. G., A. Leetmaa, V. E. Kousky, R. E. Livezey, E. O'Lenic, H. van den Dool, A. J. Wagner, and D. A. Unger, 1999: NCEP forecasts of the El Nino of 1997-98 and its U.S. impacts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 1829-1852.

Anderson, J., H. van den Dool, A. Barnston, W. Chen, W. Stern, and J. Ploshay, 1999: Present-day capabilities of numerical and statistical models for atmosphereic extratropical seasonal simulation and prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 1349-1361.

Barnston, A. G., M. H. Glantz, and Y. He, 1999: Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997-98 El Nino Episode and the 1998 La Nina Onset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 217-243.

He, Y., A. G. Barnston, and A. C. Hilton, 1998: A Precipitation Climatology for Stations in the Tropical Pacific Basin; Effects of ENSO. NCEP/Climate Prediction Center Atlas No. 5, U. S. Dept. of Commerce, 280 pp.

Johansson, A., A. Barnston, S. Saha, and H. M. van den Dool, 1998: On the level and origin of easonal forecast skill in northern Europe. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 103-127.

Barnston, A. G., M. Chelliah, and S. B. Goldenberg, 1997: Documentation of a highly ENSO-related SST region in the equatorial Pacific. Atmosphere-Ocean, 35, 367-383.

Barnston, A. G., W. Thiao, and V. Kumar, 1996: Long-lead forecasts of seasonal precipitation in Africa using CCA. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 506-520.

Barnston, A. G., and T. M. Smith, 1996: Specification and prediction of global surface temperature and precipitation from global SST using CCA. J. Climate, 9, 2660-2697.

Barnston, A. G., and Y. X. He, 1996: Skill of canonical correlation analysis forecasts of 3-month mean surface climate in Hawaii and Alaska. J. Climate, 10, 2579-2605.

He, Y. X., and A. G. Barnston, 1996: Long-lead forecasts of seasonal precipitation in the tropical Pacific islands using CCA. J. Climate, 10, 2020-2035.

Shabbar, A., and A. G. Barnston, 1996: Skill of seasonal climate forecasts in Canada using canonical correlation analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 2370-2385.

Smith, T. M., A. G. Barnston, M. Ji, and M. Chelliah, 1995: The impact of Pacific-Ocean subsurface data on operational prediction of tropical Pacific SST at the NCEP. Wea. Forecasting, 4, 708-714.

Barnston, A. G., H. M. van den Dool, S. E. Zebiak, T. P. Barnett, M. Ji, D. R. Rodenhuis, M. A. Cane, A. Leetmaa, N. E. Graham, C. F. Ropelewski, V. E. Kousky, E. A. O'Lenic, and R. E. Livezey, 1994: Long-lead seasonal forecasts-- Where do we stand? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 2097-2114.

Barnston, A. G., 1994: Linear statistical short-term climate predictive skill in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Climate, 7, 1513-1564.

Livezey, R. E., A. G. Barnston, G. V. Gruza, and R. Y. Rankova, 1996: Comparative skill of 2 analog seasonal temperature prediction systems - Objective selection of predictors. J. Climate, 7, 608-615.

Barnston, A. G., and H. M. van den Dool, 1993: Toward understanding the causes of low-frequency variability - The interannual standard deviation of monthly mean 700-mb height. J. Climate, 6, 2083-2102.

Barnston, A. G., and H. M. van den Dool, 1993: A degeneracy in cross-validated skill in regression-based forecasts. J. Climate, 6, 963-977.

Barnston, A. G., and C. F. Ropelewski, 1992: Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis. J. Climate, 5, 1316-1345.

Barnston, A. G., 1992: Correspondence among the correlation, RMSE, and Heidke forecast verification measures: Refinement of the Heidke score. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 699-709.

Barnston A. G.,1991: An empirical method of estimating rain-gage and radar rainfall measurement bias and resolution. J. Appl. Meteor., 30, 282-296.

Barnston, A. G., R. E. Livezey, and M. S. Halpert, 1991: Modulation of Southern Oscillation-Northern Hemisphere mid-winter climate relationships by QBO. J. Climate., 4, 203-217.

Epstein, E. S., and A. G. Barnston 1990: A precipitation climatology of 5-day periods. J. Climate, 3, 218-236.

1980s

Barnston, A. G., 1988: The effect of weather on mood, productivity, and frequency of emotional crisis in a temperature continental climate. Int. J. Biometeor., 32, 134-143.

Barnston A. G., and R. E. Livezey, 1987: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev, 115, 1083-1126.

Barnston A. G., 1987: The global climate for March-May 1986 - Continued uncertainty about the possible onset of an ENSO episode. Mon. Wea. Rev, 115, 317-335.

Barnston A. G., and P. T. Schickedanz, 1984: The effect of irrigation on warm season precipitation in the southern Great Plains. J. Appl. Meteor., 23, 865-888.

Representing the IRI around the World

25th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 23-27, 2000, Palisades, New York.

Workshop on Climate and Island Coastal Communities, East-West Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii, November 6-8, 2000.

3rd International Workshop of the Climate Evaluation for the Semi-Arid Region of the State of Ceará and its Applications, FUNCEME, Ceará, Brazil, December 2000.

Meeting for Demonstration of the Production of the IRI Net Assessment, Central Weather Bureau, Taipeh, Taiwan, March 12-16, 2001.

12th Southeastern South America Climate Outlook Forum, Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, April 24-25, 2001.

13th Southeastern South America Climate Outlook Forum, Mariano Roque Alonso, Paraguay, July 26-27, 2001.

Inter-American Dialogue on Water Management, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil, September 2-6, 2001.

26th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 23-27, 2001, La Jolla, California, USA.

9th Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa for Mar-Apr-May 2002, Eldoret, Kenya, February 18-21, 2002.

4th International Workshop of the Climate Evaluation for the Semi-Arid Region of the State of Ceará and its Applications, FUNCEME, Ceará, Brazil, December 2001.

Fire/weather/hydrology Workshop, University of Arizona, March 4, 2002, Tucson, Arizona, USA.

27th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 21-25, 2002, Fairfax, Virginia, USA.

Workshop of Central Bank of Peru: Peru's Challenges facing El Nino, or How to Benefit from It and Mitigate Damage. October 30, 2002, Lima, Peru.

IRI-DWC Workshop on Applicable Methods for Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Water Management. November 6-8, 2002, Palisades, New York, USA.

IRI/Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan Workshop on the Data Library Mirror Site. December 4-6, 2002, Taipei, Taiwan.

WMO Workshop of the CBS: Standards for Global Producers of Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts. February 10-13, 2003, Geneva, Switzerland.

11th Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa, March 3-5, 2003, Entebbe, Uganda.

2003 World Water and Environmental Resource Congress, June 22-26, 2003, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S.

28th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 20-23, 2003, Reno, Nevada, USA.

International Workshop on Monthly to Seasonal Climate Prediction, and current climate outlook forum, National Taiwan Normal University and Central Weather Bureau, October 25-27, 2003, Taipei, Taiwan.

WMO Workshop of the CBS: Standard Verification System for seasonal to dent interannual climate forecasts. December 1-4, Montreal, Canada.

WMO Workshop on training and capacity building in the Andean region of South America. December 8-11, 2003, Guayaquil, Ecuador.

Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC) Regional Workshop: A Look to the Future. June 1-3, 2004, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA.

El Nino Early Warning for Sustainable Development in Pacific Rim Countries and Islands. September 13-16, 2004, Galapagos Islands, Ecuador.

NOAA meeting about the development of a better performance measure for NOAA's seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. Participants: NOAA OGP/CPC and parner institutions; 26 January, 2005, Silver Spring, Maryland.

Regional technical meeting on CLIPS and agrometeorological applications for the Mercosur countries. 13-16 July, 2005, Campinas, Brazil.

30th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 24-28, 2005, State College, Pennsylvania, USA. Invited talk: "Consolidation of Predictions of Seasonal Climate by Several Atmospheric General Circulation Models at IRI".

Pacific Region climate forecast operations course and meeting for mainly northern Pacific islands: development of forecasting system through consolidation of model ensembles and other forecast tools into probability forecast distribution; forecast products. 5-9 June, 2006, Honolulu.

Short course for INMET, and other Brazilian meteorologists, climate scientists, and applied specialists, on climate prediction and use of the IRI's Climate Predictability Tool. 19-23 June, 2006, Brasilia, Brazil.

31st Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 23-27, 2006, Boulder, Colorado, USA. Invited talk: "A Review of 2005/2006 ENSO Predictions".

Presentation on "The Ethical Dimension of Climate Change", Side Event of the 15th Session of the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD-15), April 30, 2007, United Nations, New York, New York.

Climate information component of meetings sponsored by World Bank GEF Integrated National Adaptation Plan (INAP), Bogota, Colombia, 30 July - 3 Aug, 2007.

32st Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 22-26, 2007, Tallahassee, Florida, USA. Invited talk: "A Review of 2005-2007 ENSO Predictions".

Training/capacity building in climate prediction, review of use of Climate Predictability Tool: "Climate information to manage climate risk", Nov. 19-23, 2007, INMET, Brasilia, Brazil.

Training in seasonal climate prediction and use of Climate Predictability Tool, sponsored by Comite Regional de Recursos Hidricos and Sistema de la Integracion Centroamerica (Central America Met and Hydro organizations), Nov. 26-30, 2007, San Salvador, El Salvador.

Side-meeting on improvements to the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), at AMS Annual Meeting, Jan 23, 2008, New Orleans, Louisiana.

Training on climate prediction using Climate Predictability Tool, and in verification, at SENAMHI, Aug. 24-31, 2008, Lima, Peru.

33rd Annual Climate diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 20-24, 2008, Lincoln, Nebraska, USA. Oral presentation: "Verification of IRI's Seasonal Climate Forecasts, 1997 to Present", by T. Barnston and S. Li.

Presented on "The IRI Seasonal Climate Forecast System, 2009" at Workshop sponsored by Moore/Google: Climate teleconnections and Early Warning Systems for Food, Health and Ecosystem Security. June 23, 2009, Mountain View, California.

34th Annual Climate diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 26-30, 2009, Monterey, California, USA. Oral presentation: "An Evaluation of the Skill of ENSO Forecasts during 2002-2009", by T. Barnston and M. Tippett.

Training in seasonal climate prediction and review of use of Climate Predictability Tool, sponsored by Comite Regional de Recursos Hidricos and Sistema de la Integracion Centroamerica (Central America Met and Hydro organizations), Nov. 23-26, 2009, Panama City, Panama.

Training in seasonal climate prediction and use of Climate Predictability Tool, sponsored by Google: Nov. 30 - Dec. 4, 2009, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Training on empirical forecast methods at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in Trieste, Itally, Aug. 9 - 13, 2010, Trieste, Italy.

Training on climate prediction and use of Climate Predictability Tool for NOAA/CPC African Desk, Mar. 7 - 11, 2011, IRI, Palisades, New York, U.S.